On April 17, 2025, the “Energy Policy of Russia and Central Asia” seminar was held at ENERPO Research Center. The seminar was moderated by Professor Vasily Zubakin, Doctor of Economics, Head of the RES Department of Gubkin Russian State University of Oil and Gas (RGU).
Speakers: Alexander Grigoriev, Ph.D., Deputy Director General of the Institute of Natural Monopolies Problems, Head of the Department of Fuel and Energy Complex Research; Anna Lobanova, Expert on Energy Connectivity, Energy Department, UN Economic Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP); Nikita Lomagin, Doctor of Historical Sciences, Vice-Rector for Relations with Governmental Bodies and Public Organizations, Director of the ENERPO Research Center of the European University at St. Petersburg; Maxim Titov, Research Fellow of the ENERPO Research Center; Nadezhda Sheveleva, Ph.D., Director and Regional Representative of SPE GAIA Russia (Society of Petroleum Engineers), Associate Professor of Gubkin Russian State University of Oil and Gas.
Presentations are available at the link.
The participants discussed the following issues during the seminar:
1. The growing population of the Central Asian region and increasing electricity consumption are taking place against the backdrop of deteriorating national grid networks, capacity shortages and growing investment needs for modernization
The development of the region's economies is uneven, but at the same time there are common trends such as population growth and increases in energy production and consumption. Currently, the population is growing from 80 million people now, and the Central Asian region is steadily heading towards 100 million people by 2040. Energy consumption is climbing at an average rate of 3-5% per year, and the commissioning of new capacities is not keeping pace with demand. Furthermore, the shortage of capacity is exacerbated by the deterioration of the existing grid. Huge capital investments in the energy sector are needed. Technical solutions to modernize the energy sector will require greater integration of the countries in the region and active cooperation.
2. Energy connectivity is of particular importance for the sustainable development of energy systems
The interconnectivity of the energy systems of individual countries is crucial to the reliability and sustainability of the region's energy system as a whole. There are obvious benefits of interconnectivity including energy exchange that stimulates economic growth through trade and investment, and promotes innovation and technological exchange. This, in turn, ensures grid stability and reliability, which contributes to infrastructure resilience. The current state of energy connectivity infrastructure requires new solutions to develop institutions, model a common electricity market, establish data exchange, unify approaches to energy sector regulation, and address tariff setting issues. Further steps in developing and implementing the energy connectivity roadmap also include discussing financial aspects and strengthening the coordination of international institutions in the region.
3. In the context of energy system development in Central Asia, it is important to understand Russia's interests and the instruments for achieving them
The tools that Russia has at its disposal in its energy policy relations with the countries of the region include market access, energy subsidies, workforce migration and visa regimes, as well as financial assistance and loans. The crisis of relations with the West has intensified interest in Central Asia, which is generally not contrary to the interests of the countries of the region. Russia offers comprehensive cooperation in which energy policy issues complement fundamental security issues, including the fight against terrorism and drug trafficking, while providing a counterbalance to China's growing influence. Russia's capabilities and intentions to diversify hydrocarbon markets and export services coincide with growing demand and consumption in Central Asian countries. The realization of interests mainly takes place in a bilateral format.
4. One of the most important factors in ensuring energy policy is the issue of financing
Analysis of the financing structure of technically complex, energy security-critical infrastructure energy projects has shown that such projects are primarily supported by international development institutions through sovereign loans and grants. As of April 2025, more than 200 energy projects totalling nearly $14 billion have been financed in the five countries of the region. The role of international development institutions in promoting energy sector reforms is also important. In particular, Central Asian countries are implementing technical assistance programs aimed at improving legal regulation, consistently raising tariffs to the level of cost recovery, reducing non-payments and losses in the energy sector, and increasing the transparency and efficiency of national energy companies. This progress creates conditions for further attraction of private investments into the energy sector.
5. Energy policy in the Central Asian region should take into account the need to harmonize carbon markets
The different rates and formats of low-carbon development nevertheless have a common vector – both for Russia and the Central Asian countries. Some of the countries of the region have already committed to achieving carbon neutrality with Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan targeting 2050, and Russia and Kazakhstan targeting 2060. Carbon markets and emissions trading systems under voluntary or mandatory mechanisms are now being established, and it is at this stage that coordination and discussion of cooperation opportunities become particularly important. Benefits are seen in lowering barriers to entry to carbon markets, expanding them and creating cross-national venues for trading carbon units.
Summing up, the participants of the seminar agreed that the scientific and practical relevance of the topic will increase. In this regard, it is necessary to actively involve think tanks and research institutions of Central Asian countries in this discussion.
