Lecture by Alexander Plekhanov (EBRD, London) "How much do tariffs matter? Evidence from the Customs Union of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia"

The talk were discussing an empirical analysis of the early impact of the formation of the customs union of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia and associated changes in import schedules on the structure of imports of the three member countries. Trade creation effects appear to have been insignificant, except in trade between Russia and third countries where Russian tariffs decreased. At the same time the change in tariffs appears to have created some trade diversion, with a significantly negative impact on imports from China to Kazakhstan in particular and a significantly positive impact on imports from within the customs union to Kazakhstan. The magnitude of this effect is relatively small, however. The results suggest that the benefits of the new tariff policy per se to member countries are limited at best. Larger benefits could come from a gradual removal of non-tariff barriers.