27 апреля в 18:00 Константин Стырин (Банк России, Департамент исследований) представит доклад "Bank Market Power and Transmission of Monetary Policy into Bank Lending: Evidence from Loan-Level Data".
This paper addresses three research questions: (i) How does monetary policy transmit to bank lending depending on the bank market structure? (ii) How are various characteristics of loans such as volume, maturity, lending rate, and riskiness affected? (iii) Do any other bank-level characteristic matter? All these questions are important for financial stability.
We test a number of hypotheses of interest. A cut in the policy rate stimulates bank lending both along extensive (the loan volume) and intensive margins (the probability of granting a loan to a new customer). It also incentivizes banks to grant riskier loans with longer maturity. These patterns are often referred to as chasing for yield and are presumably less pronounced in the environment with high market concentration and also for bigger and better capitalized banks. As theory suggests, the pass-through of policy rate into lending rate is predicted to be weaker in regional markets with high concentration. We find some preliminary evidence in support of these hypotheses. Our findings imply that there is a trade-off between the potency of monetary policy and financial stability, and we believe this is an important policy message.
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Фото: Unsplash